Tracking the Economic Slowdown

A crowd is gathered around the sickbed of the economic expansion. Among the multitude are the workers, consumers and business people who would be most impacted by its demise. There are political partisans too, some fervently praying for recovery, others quietly hoping for the opposite. At the foot of the bed are fiscal and monetary doctors, the former preparing a sugary solution to inject into the patient and the latter casting nervous eyes both on the patient and the fiscal doctors, concerned about a renewal of inflationary fever. Foreign governments and central bankers also stand vigil, from as safe a distance as they can manage, conscious of the infectious nature of the patient’s disease. And close by the door are investors, contemplating a quick exit from American assets but haunted by the memory of the many past remarkable American recoveries. There is a knock at the door. It is the last week in April and a battery of tests are in that should shed further light on the delicate health of the economic expansion.