Alternative Visions -US GDP Analysis for 1st Quarter 2018 + Synchronous Global Growth Disappears -04.27.18
The show debunks 1st quarter US GDP and official forecasts the US GDP will accelerate in rest of 2018. Rasmus explains how 1Q2018 capital spending is really flat, consumer spending is growing at a mere 1.1%, how autos and housing will continue to weaken in 2018, as will consumer spending in general as oil prices, healthcare costs, and rent inflation take an ever-bigger bite out of real consumption throughout 2018. Rasmus then critiques central banks—US, UK, and Europe—current interest rate policies: US Fed rate hikes aren’t justified by US core PCE inflation rate of 1.5%. Thus the Fed’s 2% price target is phony and rate hikes are driven by the Fed’s need to finance annual $1 trillion US deficits and debt due to Trump tax cuts and defense spending acceleration. The UK and EU economies are now slowing rapidly, and their banks will not hike rates. Rasmus explains how US rates and dollar will soon lead to a new crisis in emerging market economies as well, especially Latin America. The show concludes with the latest on the Trump phony ‘dual track’ trade war with allies, and a prediction of a settlement in the current US-China trade dispute before it becomes real ‘trade war’. How US domestic politics are what’s really behind the US-China trade skirmish. (For a detailed analysis of the US-China trade dispute, check out Rasmus’s blog posting, on April 29, of his soon to be published in Beijing article, “Trump’s DejaVu China Trade War”. Go to jackrasmus.com).
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