Alternative Visions - Trade, Fed Rates, and Global Economy - 07.20.18
Dr. Rasmus reviews the status of ‘Trump Trade Wars’ re. China, Europe, and NAFTA, noting tariffs have been actually implemented on only 2.3% of total US imports and exports. Rasmus predicts: deal with NAFTA within 6 months, possibly with China in early 2019, and with the EU only after its ‘Brexit’ issue is resolved. In the meantime, much Trump threats and bombast to appeal to his domestic political base for November elections. Rasmus next addresses the Federal Reserve chair, Powell’s, testimony to Congress this past week, indicating 2 more rate hikes in 2018 and more after. Rasmus reiterates his prediction that a Fed Funds rate hike above 2.5% (now 2%) will invert the yield curve and precipitate the next recession, likely in 2019. Trump’s critique of Powell, as the Fed raises rates to finance Trump’s annual more than $1 trillion deficits and debt. Trump doesn’t want more hikes but created them with his multi-trillion dollar tax cuts and defense spending. The show concludes with discussion of signs of slowing global trade and economy, and some financial instability indicators emerging in Asian junk bonds and China markets.
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