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Saltklypa

Saltklypa

Society & Culture

#174 - Bayesianske bedømmelser

#174 - Bayesianske bedømmelser

2018-10-22
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Hvis dere har fulgt med på Saltklypas nyttårsspådommer, så har du sikkert funnet ut at en av dem nå har gått i oppfyllelse! Ta den, Henning Hai Lee Yang!

Alt tatt i betraktning ...

Tunga rett i munnen nå: Hvordan påvirkes vår usikkerhet over en ting i hverdagen av at vi mottar ny informasjon? Kan vi kanskje bruke en nøye utprøvd statistisk-matematisk læresetning til å sette dette i system? Saltklypa-redaksjonen takler Bayes teorem og bayesiansk tenkning, uten å være matematikere (eller statistikere, eller psykologer). Her er noen av artiklene vi har brukt som grunnlag for vår hyllest til usikkerheten:

  • Matematisk: Brukt på analyse av mammografi og Monty Hall-problemet: https://psykologisk.no/2014/04/en-demonstrasjon-av-bayes-laeresetning/
  • Enkel engelsk beskrivelse: https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/06/bayesian-statistics-beginners-simple-english/ 
  • Bjørn Vassnes: "Bayes' regel sier hvordan vi anslår sannsynligheten for at noe er sant, med to eller flere usikre faktorer: ved å beregne produktet av disse faktorene." https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kommentar/i/g77zJ/Kunsten-a-tenke-riktig
  • Bayesiansk tenking (i overført betydning): https://io9.gizmodo.com/how-bayes-rule-can-make-you-a-better-thinker-471233405
  • Kurs i Bayesiansk tenking, interaktivt: http://programs.clearerthinking.org/question_of_evidence.html
  • Hvordan Bayes blir brukt i fysikk, spesielt astronomi: http://slittlefair.staff.shef.ac.uk/teaching/phy217/lectures/stats/L19/index.html#bayes
  • XKCD: https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/frequentists_vs_bayesians.png
Anbefalinger

Podcasten You Are Not So Smart om Bayesiansk tenkning (ep. 73)

view more

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