The biggest experiment in markets: How does it end?

Guest: Sean Fenton, Sage Capital

In response to the COVID-19 shutdowns, governments and central banks around the world have embarked on an enormous monetary and fiscal experiment, the scale of which has not been seen before. In the space of a few weeks, the US Federal Reserve added more to its balance sheet than the entire period between 2009 and 2014. Meanwhile, additional spending measures combined with falling tax receipts are expected to see the US deficit soar to US$3.8T in 2020, almost 20% of GDP.

But in the face of this massive stimulus, demand has fallen off a cliff, the economy has stopped, and unemployment has spiked to 1930's levels.

Sean Fenton from Sage Capital says we're seeing a massive tug of war between liquidity and economic fundamentals, and it's not clear yet which side will win.

"This is an experiment that has no defined end point for how it turns out, just a range of possibilities. Those possibilities are very wide, and can have some divergent outcomes."

But what are the implications of all this for markets? And how are investors supposed to position for such an environment? We discuss this in the latest episode of The Rules of Investing podcast. He also tells us about his highest conviction investment right now, and shares his view on whether we'll see a new high, or a new low first.