More SANE analysis of the current Covid19 Numbers and Ressearch with Adam Steele
EPISODE 44
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We start with a brief discussion of Jo Jorgenson, the new Libertarian party candidate. https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/jo-jorgensen-libertarian-nomination/
Then we begin analyzing the Covid19 situation:
The code. It isn’t the code Ferguson ran to produce his famous Report 9. What’s been released on GitHub is a heavily modified derivative of it, after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others. This revised codebase is split into multiple files for legibility and written in C++, whereas the original program was “a single 15,000 line file that had been worked on for a decade” (this is considered extremely poor practice). A request for the original code was made 8 days ago but ignored,
From
"It contains 450 different parameters, each of which is either a single float or a float matrix. The majority of these are not based on any ground truth data that I can see and are just magic numbers" presented in the model. Any one of them can change the outputs of the model in unpredictable ways. The model is essentially a giant, complex state machine. Its stochastic, which basically just means its contains random elements - so the no two runs produce the same results. i. https://twitter.com/ThatKatyaGirl/status/1258431484018466817?s=20
"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." J.V Neumann
Lab release
The 1977 H1N1 flu was caused by the accidental release of a 20-year old laboratory strain b. https://twitter.com/BenGoldhaber/status/1257319855503495171?s=20
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0011184
Variolation
George Washington
1% fatality rate!
smallpox itself is ~30%
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