Philosophy Radio! drlabasham777's Podcast
Society & Culture:Philosophy
Prior probability of a Conspiracy is the probability types of conspiracy we have witnessed before will happen again.
Here we explore the prior probability of Alien incursion, denied by the US government: Extra-terrestrial visitation visitation. Remember that "Terrestrial" just means Earth, it means "from Earth". Extra-terrestrial means from beyond, from outside of Earth. In what follows I give you my parents' story. I also caution you. These people did not make things up, wanted no attention and did not like telling this to others and only repeated it a few times in my life. They strongly disagreed about where it came from that they saw, but never about what they saw. I was a young child so my testimony is easily called into doubt on some points. But their testimony is not.
The epistemic issue is how these personal experiences should, rationally, change our evaluation of evidence. Put simply, what we experience happening once we will be less likely to doubt it is happening again. This is the Bayesian (the logician/statistics theorist) notion of Prior Probability. What you have seen before raises the Prior Probability that if can happen again in some way. And if what you witnessed before involved a conspiracy to hide it, then your Prior Probability of Conspiracy at high levels of media and government will also be raised. You learn to see these actions as More Likely. They have a higher Prior Probability.
Have you seen something extra-terrestrial in the sky? Please share a brief response.
Cheers~
Dr. Lee Basham
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