JP Smith of the IRF is joined by John Ryding of RDQ Economics, a US based macro-economics consultancy which he founded along with former Bear Stearns colleague Conrad Dequadros in 2008, to discuss the outlook for the US economy over the coming months.
----more----
John describes the process and approach of RDQ fusing economic history and John and Conrad’s own extensive experience of the relationship between macro-economics and financial markets, with the more classical economic modelling and data-based techniques. This eclectic methodology enabled RDQ to be well ahead of the consensus in forecasting much higher inflation over the past fifteen months and John outlines the reasons behind the Fed’s mistaken belief that inflation would prove transitory and what this implies for the future trajectory of inflation and direction of monetary policy. RDQ remain pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to curb excess demand due to previous policy errors, the overheating labour market and secular trends such as demographics and the reshoring of manufacturing.
RDQ believe that US dollar strength is likely to persist given further tightening of US monetary policy relative to current expectations and the increasingly dire outlook in Europe and China; ’the currency markets can run an awful lot further than one would think’. John is sceptical that tighter monetary policy is fully priced into financial markets, but that commodities and real assets have even greater downside as Fed action slows the global economy. John and JP concur that lower earnings are not yet fully discounted in equities which are likely to remain volatile without any clear direction over the coming months.
“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG Analytics
"The Politics of Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Argentina; Can President Milei Succeed?", Nicholas Watson, Teneo
"Global Investing at a Time of War", David Murrin, Global Forecaster
“Global Financial Markets: Recent Trends and Future Prospects”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“Sustainable Investment Opportunities and Risks in 2024”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“The Outlook for the US Economy and Financial Markets in 2024”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook For World Commodity Prices”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
“Latin American Politics: Navigating The Rapids”, Marcos Buscaglia, Alberdi Partners
“Japan: Back in the Big Time?”, Ryoji Musha, Musha Research
“The Global Financial Markets in 2023 and Beyond”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“ESG Investing: Pitfalls and Potential Opportunities”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“A Diabolical Mechanism”, Mark Latham, Commodity Intelligence
“The Outlook for the Turkish Economy and Financial Assets”, Michael Harris, Cribstone Strategic Macro
“US Economic Policy: Teetering on an Inflationary Equilibrium”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook for the UK and US Economies and Financial Markets”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
“Approaching a Tipping Point for Growth and Inflation Expectations”, Patrick Perret-Green, PPG Macro
“Canada: On Course for a Soft Landing in 2023/24?”, Ben Rabidoux, North Cove Advisors
“Navigating the World with an Inverted Yield Curve”, Michael Churchill, Churchill Research
Research and Markets: “Buckle up for an Increase in Volatility”, JP Smith, IRF
Join Podbean Ads Marketplace and connect with engaged listeners.
Advertise Today
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The Commercial Edge: Unleash the Power of People
The emPOWERed Half Hour
Aligned Money Show
Dubai Property Podcast
IBKR Podcasts
The Ramsey Show
The Clark Howard Podcast