Cast your mind back to when markets were expecting seven rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, thanks to hopes of an immaculate disinflation in the United States and the persistence of a tight jobs market both stateside and in Australia. The 10-year yield in the US was under 4% and the crude oil price was hovering at around US$70/barrel - a warm price but not one that would cause alarm among investors.
Remember that time? Believe it or not, that was just five months ago. Fast forward to today and everything has changed. Crude oil now has US$100/barrel in its sights, the US 10-year yield is now at 4.5%, and gold prices are at all-time highs despite a breakdown in its traditional relationship with real yields.
It's such a remarkable performance that Russel Chesler of VanEck has described the move as a chance for investors to get in on a "once in a decade" opportunity for gold miners. But, as the next 20 minutes will reveal, this bullish view has both its proponents and sceptics.
With this (and other huge moves in the commodities market in mind), Signal or Noise presents its annual episode dedicated to the intersection of commodities and the global economy. Joining yours truly and Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP are:
Note: This episode was taped on Wednesday 10 April 2024. You can watch the episode, listen to the podcast, or read our edited summary here.
Where these investors are putting over $3 trillion to work in markets
Could ASX earnings and dividends beat the odds and rise this year?
Why there is no credit crunch coming in 2024
Why Australia is already in a recession (but the RBA can’t afford to cut interest rates)
Signal or Noise: Are we at the start of the next house price boom?
How to invest in a market full of confusing signals
Signal or Noise: 10 things every investor should know right now
Why these fund managers think the hiking cycle is done (and what it means for your investments)
7 key themes (and 4 stocks) to watch this ASX reporting season
Why the ASX is trading like a recession is coming (and the NASDAQ isn’t)
The ultimate guide to Australian income investing
Signal or Noise: Why the RBA’s May rate hike was the right decision
Is this the start of a second Global Financial Crisis?
Five commodities stocks successfully navigating geopolitical change
The biggest event in markets is happening right now
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