While Signal or Noise was away on its summer break, the bulls were certainly out in force.
The Santa Rally which dominated the end of 2023 has been spurred on by an even bigger anticipation for rate cuts. The RBA was not tipped to cut rates at all just six months ago. Now, thanks to an inflation print that outshone almost all expectations, the Australian rates curve has two cuts priced in by the end of 2024. And as if on cue, the ASX 200 hit an all-time high.
And until the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference last week, there were as many as six rate cuts priced into the US curve. Even before the Fed's meeting, the S&P 500 hit its first record close in two years. The anticipation for cuts led to the rally which loosened financial conditions around the world. Everything rallied - from bonds to equities and especially credit where one index of IG and High Yield asset values suggests that more than US$1 trillion in value has been added just since the October 2023 low.
So is this the Goldilocks setup for a vintage year in investing? To find out, Signal or Noise is back for the first show of 2024.
7 commodities (and 8 stocks) to watch in this complex market
Where these investors are putting over $3 trillion to work in markets
Could ASX earnings and dividends beat the odds and rise this year?
Why Australia is already in a recession (but the RBA can’t afford to cut interest rates)
Signal or Noise: Are we at the start of the next house price boom?
How to invest in a market full of confusing signals
Signal or Noise: 10 things every investor should know right now
Why these fund managers think the hiking cycle is done (and what it means for your investments)
7 key themes (and 4 stocks) to watch this ASX reporting season
Why the ASX is trading like a recession is coming (and the NASDAQ isn’t)
The ultimate guide to Australian income investing
Signal or Noise: Why the RBA’s May rate hike was the right decision
Is this the start of a second Global Financial Crisis?
Five commodities stocks successfully navigating geopolitical change
The biggest event in markets is happening right now
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The emPOWERed Half Hour
The Commercial Edge: Unleash the Power of People
Aligned Money Show
Dubai Property Podcast
IBKR Podcasts
The Ramsey Show
The Clark Howard Podcast