David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.
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In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalization. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. Their predictions are proving to be alarmingly accurate.
In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the various drivers of inflation and how they are changing, both in the short term and in the longer run. He assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj points out that some inflationary pressures will persist beyond the peak of the current revival. He discusses what this means for economic policy and for economic growth. Manoj concludes with an assessment of the implications for the financial markets in certain advanced economies and emerging markets.
Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the highly-regarded former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.
“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG Analytics
"The Politics of Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Argentina; Can President Milei Succeed?", Nicholas Watson, Teneo
"Global Investing at a Time of War", David Murrin, Global Forecaster
“Global Financial Markets: Recent Trends and Future Prospects”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“Sustainable Investment Opportunities and Risks in 2024”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“The Outlook for the US Economy and Financial Markets in 2024”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook For World Commodity Prices”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
“Latin American Politics: Navigating The Rapids”, Marcos Buscaglia, Alberdi Partners
“Japan: Back in the Big Time?”, Ryoji Musha, Musha Research
“The Global Financial Markets in 2023 and Beyond”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“ESG Investing: Pitfalls and Potential Opportunities”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“A Diabolical Mechanism”, Mark Latham, Commodity Intelligence
“The Outlook for the Turkish Economy and Financial Assets”, Michael Harris, Cribstone Strategic Macro
“US Economic Policy: Teetering on an Inflationary Equilibrium”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook for the UK and US Economies and Financial Markets”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
“Approaching a Tipping Point for Growth and Inflation Expectations”, Patrick Perret-Green, PPG Macro
“Canada: On Course for a Soft Landing in 2023/24?”, Ben Rabidoux, North Cove Advisors
“Navigating the World with an Inverted Yield Curve”, Michael Churchill, Churchill Research
Research and Markets: “Buckle up for an Increase in Volatility”, JP Smith, IRF
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