My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
Business:Investing
BIO: William Bernstein is a neurologist, a co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors – an investment management firm, and has written several titles on finance and economic history.
STORY: William lost money after investing in palladium futures under the belief that a couple of physicists had perfected the technique of cold fusion to get helium.
LEARNING: Never invest based on the headlines. Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing.
“Something that everyone knows has already been pounded into the market, so it isn’t worth knowing.”William Bernstein
Guest profile
William Bernstein is a neurologist, a co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors – an investment management firm, and has written several titles on finance and economic history. He has contributed to the peer-reviewed finance literature and has written for several national publications, including Money Magazine and The Wall Street Journal.
He has produced several finance titles and four volumes of history, The Birth of Plenty, A Splendid Exchange, Masters of the Word, and The Delusions of Crowds, about, respectively, the economic growth inflection of the early nineteenth century, the history of world trade, the effects of access to technology on human relations and politics, and the history and social psychology of mass manias. He was also the 2017 winner of the CFA Institute’s James R. Vertin Award.
Worst investment everAbout 35 years ago, a couple of physicists announced that they had perfected the technique of cold fusion, which enables you to take hydrogen atoms, smash them together, and get helium—the same thing that goes on in a hydrogen bomb. If that were the case, then it meant there was now a source of energy that was too cheap to meter. The limiting factor in that technique was palladium, which was the catalyst. So, palladium went from $100 to $400 an ounce. William thought it would be a good idea to buy palladium futures. He lost his money in that investment.
Lessons learnedStart slow, see how you react to the bear market, and find out your actual risk tolerance in the real world because there’s a big gap between talking to talk and walking the walk.
No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsWilliam’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to read good nonfiction books and then write reviews.
Parting words“Just keep buying.”William Bernstein
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Connect with William Bernstein
Further reading mentioned
Igor Yelnik – Think About Non-Market Risks
Bogumil Baranowski – Be Careful With Businesses in Secular Decline
ISMS 17: Larry Swedroe – Do You Project Recent Trends Indefinitely Into the Future?
ISMS 16: Top 5 EM Country Interest Rates – Normal China Yield Curve
ISMS 15: Top 5 DM Country Interest Rates – Steep US Inversion
ISMS 14: Regional Interest Rates - Low in Asia, Egypt and Frontiers on Fire
ISMS 13: Global Interest Rates - Hikes Slow, Inversion Signals Recession
Peter Ricchiuti – Don’t Fall in Love With a Stock
Jason Hsu – The Market Can Be Crazy for Longer than You Have the Conviction
Shreekkanth Viswanathan – Qualitative Strengths of a Company Matter Too
Jeremy Kokemor – Tread Carefully When Investing in Metals and Mining
Paul Hodges – There’s No Substitute for Judgment
Amy Minkley – What Is Your Enough?
Benjamin Claremon – Know What Kind of Investor You Are
Edward McQuarrie – Never Ever Sell Naked Calls
ISMS 12: CPI Racing Across the Globe
ISMS 11: US Banking Crisis and Fed Rate Cut
ISMS 10: US CPI Could Decline to 4% By YE23; Unless QE Revs Up
Michelle Leder – Read the 10-K Before You Buy That Stock
ISMS 9: Saving Silicon Valley Bank Brings New Risks
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