A New York Times and Siena College poll released Nov. 5 showed Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five of the six key swing states, with a notable jump in support among nonwhite and young voters. In response, Democrats freaked out.
But then two days later, voters across the country actually went to the polls, and Democrats and Democratic-associated policy did pretty well. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear held the governorship. Democrats took back the House of Delegates in Virginia. And Ohio voted for an amendment protecting abortion rights.
I asked Mike Podhorzer, a longtime poll skeptic, to help me understand the apparent gap between the polls and the ballot box. Podhorzer was the longtime political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. And as the founder of the Analyst Institute, he was the godfather of the data-driven turn in Democratic campaign strategy. He also writes a newsletter on these topics called “Weekend Reading.”
We discuss the underlying assumptions behind polling methodologies and what that says about their results; how to square Biden’s unpopularity with the Democrats’ recent wins; why he thinks an anti-MAGA majority is Biden’s best bet to the White House and how that coalition doesn’t always map cleanly onto demographic data; what a newly energized labor movement might means for Biden; and much more.
Mentioned:
“We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.” by Nate Cohn
Book Recommendations:
“Politics and the English Language” by George Orwell
Tyranny, Inc. by Sohrab Ahmari
Crashed by Adam Tooze
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact checking by Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Jeff Geld and Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Emefa Agawu and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Carole Sabouraud.
Beyond the ‘Matrix’ Theory of the Mind
Fareed Zakaria on Where Russia’s War in Ukraine Stands — and Much More
Matter of Opinion: A Look at the 2024 G.O.P. Primary Field
If You’re Reading This, You’re Probably ‘WEIRD’
The Teen Mental Health Crisis, Part 2
The Teen Mental Health Crisis, Part 1
A Libertarian and I Debate the Debt Ceiling
Best Of: A Weird, Wonderful Conversation with Kim Stanley Robinson
Best Of: Why Adults Lose the ‘Beginner’s Mind’
Best Of: How the Fed Is ‘Shaking the Entire System’
The Culture Creating A.I. Is Weird. Here’s Why That Matters.
Democrats: Pay Attention to What’s Happening in California
Best Of: The War Within the Republican Party
Matthew Desmond On America’s Addiction to Poverty
The ‘Quiet Catastrophe’ Brewing in Our Social Lives
This Philosopher Wants Liberals to Take Political Power Seriously
What Biden’s Top A.I. Thinker Concluded We Should Do
Why A.I. Might Not Take Your Job or Supercharge the Economy
The Most Amazing — and Dangerous — Technology in the World
Best Of: A Powerful Theory of Why the Far Right Is Thriving Across the Globe
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The Modern West
The Daily
Fresh Air
Today, Explained
The Rest Is History
Modern Love