Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture.
Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.
0:00 Intro
1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy
2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession
4:33 The magnificent seven
6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months
7:10 Inflation
9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing
10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now
12:30 Opportunities, energy sector
15:30 Thoughts on AI
17:50 Themes
18:40 The end of globalization
22:11 Labor market
24:17 Hard or soft landing
26:00 Regional banks
27:48 Energy sector
32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)
37:24 TINA
40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100
42:00 Career in financial markets
#177 Mike Green: Passive Investing Has Turned The Market On Autopilot
#176 Economist Jonathan Treussard On The Extraordinarily Confusing Macro Data, Markets With A Memory Of A Goldfish, And If We're In Bubble Territory
#175 Chris Whalen: 'We're Hiding A Lot' — Why Commercial Could Be The Next Source Of The Financial Crisis In This Country
#174 James Lavish On The Debt Spiral: They’re Going To Print So Much Money It’s Going To Shock You
#173 Dave Collum On Why We’re Headed For A 40-Year Bear Market
#172 John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, Causes Of Inflation, And The Need To Stop Throwing Money Down Trillion-dollar Rat Holes
#171 Dave Friedberg, CEO Of Ohala And Co-Host of The All-In Podcast, On The New Breakthrough Can Boost Crop Yields By 50-100% And Could Change Farming Forever
#170 Bob Elliott: The Biggest Risk For Equity Investors Is The Economy Remains Too Strong
#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence
#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is
#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble
#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors
#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%
#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage
#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American
#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does
#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar
#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation
#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle
#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets
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