In Episode 316 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan about this week’s FOMC meeting and what the Federal Reserve rate decision could signal about the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Will it be heralded as the long anticipate Fed pivot or seen as yet another head fake on our way toward “higher for longer,” serving as a drag on equity valuations and a headwind to economic growth?
Because Andy’s analysis is largely quantitative and flows based, he looks at not only what policymakers and investors are saying, but also what they’re doing, what they’re buying, and how they’re buying it. This holds important information for the direction of bond prices, equities (and other risk asset), inflation, and economic growth, all of which Constan and Kofinas discuss in the second part of their conversation. The two also run through different scenarios surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision, the significance of Janet Yellen’s decision to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) using largely T-Bill issuance as opposed to longer duration bonds, and why the long-anticipated recession has failed to materialize despite the most aggressive interest rate increases in 40 years.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 06/13/2023
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How to Prepare for the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, & Jamil N. Jaffer
A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian
Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas
American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby
What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston
Turkish-Greek Relations & Battle Over the Eastern Mediterranean | Ryan Gingeras
Rise of Shadow Banking & Risks of a Financial Crisis | Lev Menand
Energy Geopolitics & the Remaking of the Modern World | Helen Thompson
Value Investing & How to Have “Soul in the Game" | Vitaliy Katsenelson
The Power of Crisis & How to Fight a Geopolitical Recession | Ian Bremmer
How to Trade Market Sentiment & Why Inflation Is Coming Down | Jared Dillian
The Path Towards Self-Actualization & How to Overcome Your Fears | Demetri Kofinas
The Revenge of Risk Rates & the Return of Dividend Investing | Daniel Peris
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer
Revenge of the Dollar & the Meltdown in Global Markets | Brent Johnson
The Collapse of LUNA & UST and the Vulnerability in Crypto | Nathaniel Whittemore
The New Era of Great Power Competition | John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt
Revenge of the Old Economy & How to Invest in the Commodity Supercycle | Jeff Currie
The End of the Beginning for Crypto | Michael Anderson & Vance Spencer of Framework Ventures
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