In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike.
This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we’ve published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episdoes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them.
Those who heard Demetri’s recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn’t know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn’t fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg’s recent appearance on Hidden Forces.
So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn’t have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle?
This is why we’ve brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony’s specialty is trading commodities. He’s been doing it for 30 years and we’re going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 05/17/2022
Engineering Society and the Human Experience | Michael Sacasas
The Threats to US Dollar Hegemony | Daniel McDowell
Does the Fed Have Any Idea What It’s Doing? | Jeff Snider & Brent Johnson
How to Manage Risk in the Coming Recession | David Rosenberg
Is the Banking Crisis Over or Has It Just Begun? | Jeff Snider
What the Bailout of SVB Means for the Fed's Fight Against Inflation | Steven Kelly
How Our Brains Model Reality & the True Nature of the World | Iain McGilchrist
What’s Happened to Consensus Reality? | Jon Askonas
What Pre-WWII France Can Tell Us About America in 2023 | Jonathan Kirshner
How to Balance Legitimacy & Power in a Fractured World | Sir Paul Tucker
The 1990s and the Cancellation of the Future | Chuck Klosterman
The Effect of China’s Reopening on Global Growth & Inflation | Shehzad Qazi
What Comes After Secular Stagnation? | Barry Eichengreen
How Sanctions and Export Controls Weaponize Global Trade & Finance | Agathe Demarais
Navigating the Converging Worlds of Macro & Geopolitics | Roger Hirst & Jacob Shapiro
Turkey-Syria & the New Geopolitics of the Greater Middle East | Joshua Landis
What Is Silvergate Capital & Why Does It Matter? | Edwin Dorsey
Are We Headed Towards a Monetary Breakdown? | Jeff Snider
Why You Should Care About the Twitter Files | Renée DiResta
How Much of Crypto Is a Criminal Conspiracy? | James Block
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The emPOWERed Half Hour
NABOR® TALKS
U.S Property Podcast
Aligned Money Show
The Ramsey Show
Planet Money