In Episode 265 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Howell. Michael is the CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based, independent research and investment company that provides asset allocation and capital markets advice to institutional investors.
This conversation is a natural follow-up to our recent episodes with Lev Menand on the shadow banking system and Eric Basmajian on economic cycles. Specifically, the credit cycle and its leading impact on the economy and asset prices. But this conversation with Michael also pulls directly from other episodes as well with guests like Michael Pettis on global trade and finance, Claudio Borio on financial instability, Brent Johnson on the Revenge of the Dollar, James Aitken on Digital Currency and the Pivot to Asia, Russel Napier on the New Economic Order and the Asian Financial Crisis, and of course, one of my absolute favorites, a conversation with Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee on the role of the US Dollar as an international funding currency and as the primary driver of recurring systemic crises in the international financial system.
Global liquidity is a term that every single person working in finance and in financial media has not only heard of but has probably used at one point or another. And yet, if you were to ask most people what this term means or what it refers to they would be hard pressed to give you a clear or uniform answer. This is because the drivers of global liquidity, namely the financial and exchange rate relationships within and between countries and the determinants of cross-border flows of money, securities, goods and services, are constantly changing. In the process, they have become, in the words of Michael Howell, “the new weapons in the escalating Capital Wars between the U.S., Europe, and China,” the last of which has a vested interest in not only the long-term stability of the international financial system but perhaps even the eventual aim of displacing the Dollar in favor of the Yuan as the fulcrum around which international trade and commerce is eventually invoiced and credited
The goal of today’s conversation is not only to help you gain a deeper appreciation for what global liquidity is and the geopolitical and economic forces driving it but to also help you understand how it impacts you and your portfolio directly through the outsized role that it has on shaping economic outcomes and asset prices. This comes at a time when this very liquidity is receding faster than at any point since the Great Financial Crisis and by some measures, even quicker.
You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation, along with the additional material provided by Michael Howell by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022
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How to Prepare for the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, & Jamil N. Jaffer
A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian
Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas
American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby
What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston
Turkish-Greek Relations & Battle Over the Eastern Mediterranean | Ryan Gingeras
Rise of Shadow Banking & Risks of a Financial Crisis | Lev Menand
Energy Geopolitics & the Remaking of the Modern World | Helen Thompson
Value Investing & How to Have “Soul in the Game" | Vitaliy Katsenelson
The Power of Crisis & How to Fight a Geopolitical Recession | Ian Bremmer
How to Trade Market Sentiment & Why Inflation Is Coming Down | Jared Dillian
The Path Towards Self-Actualization & How to Overcome Your Fears | Demetri Kofinas
The Revenge of Risk Rates & the Return of Dividend Investing | Daniel Peris
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer
Revenge of the Dollar & the Meltdown in Global Markets | Brent Johnson
The Collapse of LUNA & UST and the Vulnerability in Crypto | Nathaniel Whittemore
The New Era of Great Power Competition | John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt
Revenge of the Old Economy & How to Invest in the Commodity Supercycle | Jeff Currie
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