On this week’s episode, the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing takes centre stage, including the consulate closures in Houston and Chengdu. What’s going on, and why now? How much is this all about American electoral politics, and does that even matter? Perhaps most important, how much of the trajectory of the relationship is the result of the Trump administration specifically—and could be changed if Joe Biden wins in November—and how much is structural and will persist no matter who prevails in the presidential election?
Australia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers made the big decision to travel in person to Washington DC for the annual AUSMIN consultations. But before they arrived, Australia publicly clarified its position on the South China Sea, broadly rejecting the sweeping nature of China’s maritime claims. Was the timing significant, and should we see this action more through the lens of US-China rivalry, or the positions of the other claimant states? Turning to AUSMIN, how consequential was the decision of the ministers to travel, and what messages did it send? Notwithstanding the symbolism of being there in person, the Australian side sought to establish its independence, and Allan and Darren offer their overall assessments of the meeting.
Finally, the two discuss the Defence Strategic Update, juxtaposing it with a recently announced staffing reduction at DFAT.
We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research support. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant Links
Edward Wong and Steven Lee Myers, “Officials push US-China Relations toward point of no return” New York times, 25 July 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi.html
Sui-Lee Wee and Paul Mozur, “China Uses DNA to Map Faces, With Help From the West”, New York Times, 3 December 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/business/china-dna-uighurs-xinjiang.html
The Ezra Klein Show, “Your questions, answered”, June 2020: https://player.fm/series/the-ezra-klein-show/your-questions-answered
Rebecca Strating, “Australia lays down the law in the South China Sea dispute”, Lowy Interpreter, 25 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-lays-down-law-south-china-sea-dispute
Joint Statement Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2020: https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/united-states-of-america/ausmin/joint-statement-ausmin-2020
Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), Transcript, 29 July 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/australia-united-states-ministerial-consultations-ausmin
Stephen Dziedzic, “Foreign Minister makes clear Australia will not be boxed in when it comes to China or the US”, ABC News, 29 July 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-29/ausmin-australia-united-states-china-relationship-diplomacy/12502222
Japan-Australia Leaders VTC Meeting, Media Release, 9 July 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/japan-australia-leaders-vtc-meeting
Rory Medcalf, “Shinzo Abe has made Japan a leader again”, Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2020: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/shinzo-abe-has-made-japan-a-leader-again-20200710-p55av8
2020 Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan: https://www.defence.gov.au/strategicupdate-2020/
Scott Morrison, “Address: Launch of the 2020 Defence Strategic Update”, 1 July 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-launch-2020-defence-strategic-update
Sam Roggeveen, “Regional security depends on making order from chaos” Lowy Interpreter, 18 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/regional-security-depends-making-order-chaos
Dave Sharma, “A diplomatic step-up to match our military step-up”, Lowy Interpreter, 13 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diplomatic-step-match-our-military-step
Jonathan Pryke, “DFAT cuts show our foreign policy’s khaki tinge”, Lowy Interpreter, 20 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/dfat-cuts-show-our-foreign-policy-khaki-tinge
Zack Cooper and Charles Edel, “Australia is having a strategic revolution, and it’s all about China”, Foreign Policy, 22 July 2020: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/22/australia-military-strategy-regional-policy-china/
Allan Gyngell and Isabella Keith, “New feature: The week in Australian foreign policy”, Australian Outlook, 3 July 2020: http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/new-feature-current-events-in-australian-foreign-policy/
Sam Sodomsky, “The National’s Aaron Dessner Talks Taylor Swift’s New Album folklore”, Pitchfork, 24 July 2020: https://pitchfork.com/news/the-nationals-aaron-dessner-talks-taylor-swifts-new-album-folklore/
Frances Adamson, DFAT Secretary, on our 50th episode
Ep. 49: US turmoil; India CSP; G-7; WHO lessons; HK; Australian geoeconomics
Ep. 48: Harinder Sidhu, former High Commissioner to India, on the Australia-India relationship
Ep. 47: Heather Smith on fixing the G20, industrial policy, tech competition, and what economists get wrong
Ep. 46: Australia-China tensions over a Covid-19 inquiry
Ep. 45: The WHO; “mask diplomacy”; DFAT & Covid-19
Ep. 44: The United States, and the alliance
Ep. 43: The consequences of Covid-19
Ep. 42: Covid-19 update; ASIO speaks; Morrison hosts Jokowi & Ardern
Ep. 41: Richard Maude on the Indo-Pacific, models of world politics, and Australian foreign policy
Ep. 40: Coronavirus; Huawei in the UK; the WTO, and UK / EU trade deals
Ep. 39: The 2020 Raisina Dialogue
Ep. 38: Gordon de Brouwer on economics vs security, climate change, and effective policymaking
Ep. 37: The bushfires, internationally; the Soleimani killing; reviewing 2019, looking ahead to 2020
Ep. 36: Ex-ASIO head Duncan Lewis (Part 2): foreign interference and national security policymaking in Australia
Ep. 35: Ex-ASIO head Duncan Lewis (Part 1): on his military & govt career, and the challenge of terrorism
Ep. 34: All things China (again)! Defectors? Sleeper agents? MP visas & Hong Kong
Ep. 33: US leadership: vision vs reality; RCEP; human rights in China; Syria, the Kurds and US credibility
Ep. 32: The Australia-China Relationship
Ep. 31: Debating PM Morrison’s Lowy Lecture
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free