How do the best forecasters update their beliefs? Do markets or prediction polls elicit the best forecasts? In this week’s episode of GGWP, Pavel Atanasov answers these questions and discusses his postdoc experience at Good Judgement under Phillip Tetlock and Barb Mellers. We also talked to Pavel on the strengths and weakness of machine forecasting models and different ways to handle median-spamming behavior on prediction platforms such as Metaculus during aggregation.
Pavel Atanasov is the co-founder of Pytho.io-a boutique R&D shop which uses decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pytho’s current focus is Human Forest, a double-NSF award (patent-pending) project which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. Pavel has a Ph.D in Psychology and Decision Science from The University of Pennsylvania and is the author on numerous forecasting, judgement, and behavioral data science papers.
If you want to learn about the intersection of research, entrepreneurship, and forecasting, this is the episode for you.
Find Pavel Atanasov: https://twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov
Find Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/globalguessing
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10)
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7)
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6)
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5)
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2)
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4)
Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3)
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1)
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