A recession is exactly what we need right now. And it's good for housing. So what am I talking about? The two in tenure treasury yield had a small 0.05 spread as March ended. This is on the verge of inverting, which is a high validity recession indicator of five of the last six recessions that were all proceeded by an inversion. However, today we also have incredibly strong labor market. The unemployment number just came out at 3.6%, which is a post-pandemic low. In fact, unemployment has only been lower than 3.6%, three times since 1950 non-farm payroll saw robust 431,000 jobs added, which is alongside 11.3 million job.
If you remember an inventory in 2018, when rates pushed above 5%, 1,827, new listings came on the market during March that's a 44% month of a month increase, but more than half of those new listings were scooped up as pendings increased by 1039 and closed homes increased by 941.
While more inventory might give buyers a little more breathing room, they are not giving up with more inventory. We have more sales. This additional inventory is partially due to seasonality. I mean, some of it is investors taking their winnings off the table and others are looking at this intense demand and talks of a bubble and wanting to play the timing game. I think as prices rise, high prices are a bit of a cure for high prices. The appreciation much like inflation will slow down, but talks of a bubble assume high prices themselves are the tipping point and they aren't homeownership, equity of 69.2%, a vacancy rate of 1.6% and a high birth rate. 30 to 33 years ago, all starve off the bubble talks 75,000 annual equity gain for an average Colorado. In addition to a 0.01% Colorado foreclosure rate, and a 1.9% 30 day rate tells me that struggling homeowners don't have to sell at a discount just at market,
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5 Tips for staying sharp, relevant, helpful.
Agents, are you taking this time to binge or build?
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Landlord Issues with Forbearance and Where Did All the Jumbos Go?
Preparing Agents to be Able to Respond to the Rebound
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FHFA is Gonna "Wait and See" if Servicers Need Liquidity.
What new home buyers need to do now so they can buy, rather than rent, plus Freddie & Fannie updates
How the Stimulus Package Affects Real Estate, and Equity Rich Zip-codes
Housing Was, Is and Will be Strong -DMAR April 2020
Helping SECORCares in April - Feeding, supporting, training for our neighbors to help them succeed.
FHA is NOT Dead; Forbearance is NOT Forgiveness
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Your Questions Answered Forbearance, Rates, Fannie and Freddie
Pausing - State Trumps County and the Damien Cox Letter
3 Options to Increase Liquidity NOW
Homeownership - Getting Creative in This Time of Disruption.
How to switch from transactional solutions to individualized solutions.
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