David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.
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ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.
In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.
They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.
David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.
“The US Economic Outlook: A Profitable Non-Consensus View”, Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics
“Is ESG investing, with its focus on environmental, social and governance matters, just a passing fashion or a really good long-term investment opportunity?” Julian Morris, Unicus Research
“Is US Monetary Policy Struggling to Catch Up with Inflationary Pressures” Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“Russia and the Ukraine; David Roche cuts through the markets’ complacency”, David Roche, Independent Strategy
“Data driven and pragmatic; Don Luskin takes on the bears”, Donald Luskin, TrendMacro
“The Inflationary Implications of ESG and the Climate Transition – Some Considerations”, James Aitken, Aitken Advisors
“The Outlook for Precious Metals”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
“When Does TINA (There Is No Alternative) End?”, Chris Watling, Longview Economics
”Where next for China’s big bang policy reforms”, William Hess, PRC Macro
“Finding US Equity Ideas”, Jonathan Boyar, Boyar Research
”Investing During a Saw Tooth Pandemic Recovery” David Roche, Independent Strategy
"The Myths and Maths of Commodity Investing" Kathleen Kelley, Queen Anne's Gate Capital
"Global Policy Pivot and the Wake Up Call to Markets" Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts
"Reading the Mood of the Market" Richard Edwards, HED Capital Management
"Recovery from the Covid Crisis – Sizzle or Fizzle", Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics
"The Changing Shapes of US Politics" Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“Will Bonds and Bitcoin Survive the Coming Stagflation?”, Derek Sicklen, AAS Economics
"Demographics will Reverse 3 Multi-Decade Trends", Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
"Normality – What is it and can the Financial Markets cope with it?" Michael Taylor, Coldwater Economics
“How to Instantly Spot Red Flags in Annual Reports”, Jules Hull, StockViews
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