Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to cough up internal documents under Freedom of Information laws. This included an internal modelling exercise from September 2022, which revealed the risk of an Australian recession could be as high as 80% by September 2024.
Meanwhile, a recent Bloomberg survey of 14 economists saw the probability of a recession in Australia climb from 35% to 38% in April.
Investors themselves, through their positioning, seem to be suggesting the same. Shares in classic defensive names such as Transurban (up 14%), Woolworths (up 15%), Wesfarmers (up 9%), Coles (up 15%), Telstra (up 10%), Origin Energy (up 9%) and AGL (up 11%) have continued to tick higher since the beginning of the year.
And yet, Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu is unflinchingly bullish. She doesn't believe the Australian economy will nosedive into a hard landing in the next few months or years. Instead, she argues the noise in markets has created extraordinary investment opportunities today.
Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Timestamps0:00 - Intro
1:25 - Three rules investors should live by
4:58 - Jun Bei's North Star for volatile markets
7:34 - Jun Bei's base case: Why she doesn't believe Australia will experience a recession
12:38 - The China re-opening theme isn't over yet (and the stocks' Jun Bei is backing)
19:53 - Jun Bei's earnings outlook for the ASX
21:55 - Companies facing margin pressure over the months ahead
23:11 - Why Jun Bei is shorting Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL)
26:20 - And why she's backing A2 Milk (ASX: A2M), NEXTDC (ASX: NXT), Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG), REA Group (ASX: REA), Xero (ASX: XRO), TechnologyOne (ASX: TNE), Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE).
28:55 - The unloved stocks Jun Bei is loving right now
32:26 - The importance of emotional intelligence when it comes to investing
36:49 - The best CEO and management teams in Australia
39:30 - The Rules of Investing's three favourite questions (what investors are getting wrong, a big win and loss, and a stock Jun Bei would back for the next 5 years)
Is a golden era for income investors coming?
How Perpetual’s Vince Pezzullo invests when multiples retreat
The best inflation protection you can get
Oscar Oberg’s bear market guide to oversold small caps
Why Allan Gray is still bullish energy and cautious on darlings like CSL
Simon Shields: These stocks are turning market headwinds into competitive advantage
Ben Griffiths: A bull waiting for these three signs to charge at small caps
Charlie Jamieson: Bond market pricing in ”extraordinary” rate hikes
Like the traditional resources sector? Here’s why you’re gonna love renewables
The Greatest Hits (Volume 1)
3 ingredients for small cap success
The companies that Wall Street legend Jim Chanos is shorting in 2022
3 Aussie stocks for today’s market
Why Platinum is short US tech stocks and long China
What war in Ukraine means for investors
The real reason Aussie housing is expensive
One sector with 50 years of growth ahead
Season‘s greetings from Livewire Markets
Quality and growth: How Ben Clark consistently finds winners
The biggest opportunity since the internet
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