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Society & Culture:Philosophy

【Trump 2.0 之經濟篇】由關稅戰到貨幣戰

【Trump 2.0 之經濟篇】由關稅戰到貨幣戰

2025-04-09
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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit leesimon.substack.com

當全球聚焦於關稅議題之際，我認為是時候談論一下貨幣戰爭。

首先聲明，我其實並不喜歡「貨幣戰爭」這個說法，因為這種說法往往過於簡化問題。但按照目前的形勢發展，有理由相信 Donald Trump 政府的其中一個目標，是要各國貨幣對美元升值，即所謂的「海湖莊園協議」（Mar-a-Lago Accord）。

若讀者對「海湖莊園協議」有所認識，自然會聯想到 1985 年的「廣場協議」（Plaza Accord）。當年，美國與日本、英國、法國、西德達成協議，促使美元貶值。此後，美元疲弱的局面維持了整整十年。自 1995 年至 2002 年期間，美元再次進入長期升勢；而 2002 年至 2014 年之間，美元又經歷了一段長期貶值期，直至 2022 年俄烏戰爭的出現，形勢方才開始轉變。

若從歷史數據分析，1985 年廣場…

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