Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108.
In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot.
Links:
Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show
1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit
2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon
3:34 Commercial real estate risk
4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income
5:30 Commercial, not consumer
6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing
9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed
11:24 Landlords are a small business
13:00 Silent crisis
14:50 Impact on banks
16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive
17:30 A strange economic cycle
19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market
20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade
21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks
22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?
23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers
27:00 Parting thoughts
#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024
#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist
#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money
#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook
#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker
#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing
#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession
#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table
#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000
#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?
#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s
#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up
#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds
#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet)
#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming
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