Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108.
In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot.
Links:
Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show
1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit
2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon
3:34 Commercial real estate risk
4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income
5:30 Commercial, not consumer
6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing
9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed
11:24 Landlords are a small business
13:00 Silent crisis
14:50 Impact on banks
16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive
17:30 A strange economic cycle
19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market
20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade
21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks
22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?
23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers
27:00 Parting thoughts
#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio
#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin
#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession
#114 Bob Elliott On Why It's Time For A 10% Gold Allocation
#113 Jim Rickards On What The Israel-Hamas War Could Mean For The Global Economy
#112 Darius Dale: Why We Could Have A Worse Recession Than Investors Anticipate
#111 David Hay: The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down, With Each Passing Day
#110 Marc Chandler: The Dollar's Rally Is, If It's Not Over Yet, It's Nearly Over
#109 Danielle DiMartino Booth: 'It’s Clear That The U.S. Economy Is In A Recession If It Wasn't For Everything That Uncle Sam Is Either Spending Or Fudging'
#107 Claudia Sahm: The Economy Is At An Inflection Point
#106 Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman: The U.S. Treasury Market Is The ‘Ultimate Wrecking Ball’
#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon
#104 Christopher Zook On Stagflation, Energy, And A 'Generational Opportunity' In Commercial Real Estate
#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning
#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market
#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising
#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes
#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession
#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment
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