Andrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting website that has caught our attention for more than one reason.
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10)
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines
Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8)
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7)
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6)
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5)
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2)
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4)
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1)
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