Retire Smarter with Kevin Kroskey, CFP® & Tyler Emrick, CFA® CFP®
Business:Investing
Interesting parallels can be seen in modeling retirement projections and the Coronavirus pandemic. Small changes to inputs -- such as the rate of return or infection spread rates -- can have magnified effects on outputs -- such as ending wealth or total infections (and ultimately deaths), given similar exponential growth traits.
What is important to understand in both are the concepts of risk and uncertainty. Risk can be modeled. Uncertainty cannot yet must be planned for. Misunderstand either and things can quickly go wrong.
Hear Kevin discuss these two critical concepts. He also gives his opinion on why Ohio Governor Mike Dewine was prudent in the aggressive economic shut down in face of Coronavirus uncertainty. However, Ohio, and the U.S. at large, now need to transition back to economic functioning in light of Coronavirus risks being better understood, significantly less than what was initially believed, and to avoid second-order effects becoming more severe than those from the virus itself.
Timestamps:
3:45 - How Risk And Uncertainty Affect Investing
14:37 - What Is Non-Linear Modeling?
17:32 - An Example Of Non-Linear Modeling
21:33 - The Math And Science Of The Coronavirus
35:09 - Known Unknowns
Ep 29: Your Investing Process - Part 3
Ep 28: Your Investing Process - Part 2
Ep 27: Your Investing Process - Part 1
Ep 26: Mortgage Management
Ep 25: Death Of The Stretch IRA
Ep 24: Reasons to Invest Internationally
Ep 23: What Is Financial Life Planning?
Ep 22: Will Social Security Be There For Me?
Ep 21: The Story of Jane
Ep 20: Are Guarantees Worth It? Retirement Income Planning Series - Part 5
Ep 19: Dynamic Strategy: Retirement Income Planning Series - Part 4
Ep 18: Total Return Portfolio: Retirement Income Planning Series - Part 3
Ep 17: Bad-Timing Risk: Retirement Income Planning Series - Part 2
Ep 16: Retirement Income Planning Series - Part 1
Ep 15: Integrated Advice Is Better Advice
Ep 14: Long-Term Return Expectations
Ep 13: Beating Up On Variable Annuities
Ep 12: Behind The Curtain Of Annuities And Free Steak Dinners
Ep 11: Not Resolutions - Set Goals The Right Way To Start The New Year
Ep 10: Rules Gone Awry - A Lower Tax Bracket Part 2
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