On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK.
The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.
Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.
Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.
Follow today’s guests on twitter:
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve
Federica Cocco @federicacocco
Polling Matters - Episode 148 Looking ahead to the budget. Is it still the economy, stupid?
Polling Matters - Episode 147 Will May reach a Brexit deal and can she get it through parliament?
Polling Matters - Episode 147 What now for Scotland?
Polling Matters - Episode 146 How important is housing? (w/ Matt Singh)
Polling Matters - Episode 145 Poll trends that will shape the future...education, Brexit and the politically homeless with Paula Surridge
Polling Matters - Episode 144 Chequers is dead so should Labour now offer a 'people's vote'?
Polling Matters - Episode 143 Where do the Lib Dems go from here?
Polling Matters - Episode 142 Who are the centrists and who do they think they are?
Polling Matters - Episode 141 Know your boundaries! What do the proposed boundary reforms mean and will they happen?
Polling Matters - Episode 140 Would Remain win a second referendum and could Brexit lead to a united Ireland?
Polling Matters - Episode 139 How long will Trump last (and who will run against him)? Plus, how does public opinion on Brexit look ahead of party conference season?
Polling Matters - Episode 138 Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Boris makes tea and "wreath-gate"
Polling Matters - Episode 137 Are the public turning against Brexit and what do they really think of Communism?
Polling Matters - Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far right and the death penalty and more
Polling Matters - Episode 135 The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns
Polling Matters - Emergency podcast: Bye bye Boris & what happens next?
Polling Matters - Episode 133 Pollsters. hedge funds, Heathrow and why is Blair so noisy and Cameron so quiet?
Polling Matters - Episode 132 NHS funding, 'Brexit dividends' and UK drugs policy
Polling Matters - Episode 131 Trump meets Kim and parliament votes on Brexit
Polling Matters - Episode 130 Ireland post referendum, Border polls, Leave / Remain voters deep dive and David Davis backstop vs backdown?
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