On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK.
The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.
Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.
Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.
Follow today’s guests on twitter:
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve
Federica Cocco @federicacocco
Polling Matters - Ep. 89 Trouble for Trump, 'fake news' & what the UK really thinks about immigration
Polling Matters - Ep. 88 Article 50, German elections & past PM poll ratings
Polling Matters - Ep. 87 Northern Ireland elections, Brexit impact & polling on May & Corbyn
Polling Matters - Ep. 86 Defining feminism, women's march and was Brexit a mistake?
Polling Matters - Ep. 85 May Brexit plans, immigration and Trump's inauguration
Polling Matters - Ep. 84 Corbyn the populist and Labour's future with Andrew Harrop
Polling Matters - Ep. 83 END OF YEAR SPECIAL. Survey results and the winners and losers of 2016
Polling Matters - Ep. 82 Trump tweets, Democrats future, Paul Nuttall and ICM poll
Polling Matters - Ep. 81 Analysing Trump's victory and what happens next with Jon-Christopher Bua
Polling Matters - Ep. 80 Trump wins
Polling Matters - Ep. 79 Race for the White House one week to go
Polling Matters - Ep. 78 Heathrow, Labour's floor, UKIP leadership and the 'No Brexit' Party
Polling Matters - Ep. 77 US election special
Polling Matters - Ep. 76 Great (Br)expectations, why the Tories don't want a snap election and the Clinton 'surge'
Polling Matters - Ep. 75 US debate reaction and what now for Labour?
Polling Matters - Ep. 74 Trump vs Clinton debates, 3rd parties and #Libdemfightback
Polling Matters - Ep. 72 Ashcroft polling, immigration v the single market, Junior Doctors and Trump's comeback
Polling Matters - Ep. 71 Is a Corbyn victory inevitable and what does Brexit mean?
Polling Matters - Ep. 70 Are victories for May and Clinton inevitable? (Plus popular past Prime Ministers)
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