On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK.
The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.
Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.
Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.
Follow today’s guests on twitter:
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve
Federica Cocco @federicacocco
Polling Matters - Episode 109 Do voters think Corbyn is ready to be Prime Minister?
Polling Matters - Episode 108 Queen's Speech, Brexit negotiations, Lib Dems and the youth surge
Polling Matters - Episode 107 General Election debrief: Between YouGov and the DUP
Polling Matters - Episode 106 Election eve special
Polling Matters - Episode 105 Bonus episode: Reviewing this weekend's polls
Polling Matters - Episode 104 The YouGov forecast, pollster wars & May's lost momentum
Polling Matters - Episode 103 Explaining the Labour surge & June predictions
Polling Matters - Episode 102 Breaking down the GfK / Business Insider survey results
Polling Matters - Ep. 101 Local election debrief, election forecasting and Macron with Steve Fisher
Polling Matters - Episode 100 Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows and where is the Lib Dem surge?
Polling Matters - Ep. 99 Tory landslides and Vive le pollsters! (with Chris Hanretty)
Polling Matters - Ep.98 Snap election - state of the parties and the race ahead
Polling Matters - Ep. 97 The Lib Dem fightback, the Gorton by-election and time for Nick Clegg?
Polling Matters - Ep. 96 Local elections and what will voters compromise on Brexit?
Polling Matters - Ep. 95 Brexit day: Article 50 & what now for Scotland? Plus GfK Return
Polling Matters - Ep. 94 London, Second referendum(s), Snap elections & more
Polling Matters - Ep. 93 SCOTLAND SPECIAL (and some more on Northern Ireland)
Polling Matters - Ep. 92 Northern Ireland elections, Labour members polling & budget reaction
Polling Matters - Ep. 91 Copeland, Corbyn alternatives and what makes a good PM?
Polling Matters - Ep. 90 Thatcher's legacy with Charles Moore and looking ahead to Stoke & Copeland
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