David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by David Ranson, President of HCWE & Co. HCWE has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe.
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With the uneven roll-out of Covid19 vaccines around the world this year, there is a wider than usual range of forecasts for economic growth and inflation both in 2021 and in 2022. From an investment standpoint a lot depends on the outlook for the US economy. David Ranson explains the difference in the work of HCWE and his evidence for doubting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies conducted during 2020. He doubts whether stimulus programmes stimulate output. He explains that productivity cannot be used to forecast the economy – you need to look at leading indicators that work during a crisis e.g. VIX index. He states that the economy has shown a great amount of resilience, both in the US and throughout the developed world. ‘Everyone was talking about a recession, but it was nothing like a normal recession. There was an enormous drop in output but it bounced back very quickly, which is quite unlike a recession. What we had was a Great Interruption.’
Please note that slides are available alongside this podcast upon request from the Independent Research Forum (caroline@independentresearchforum.com).
“The Fed’s Dim Chances of Getting Inflation Under Control”, David Ranson, HCWE & Co.
Research and Markets: “China and Energy Prices will be the key Drivers of Financial Markets in 2023”, JP Smith, IRF
“The Financial Markets in 2022 and 2023”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“Japan in 2023: A Year of Major Transformation and Opportunities”, Ryoji Musha, Musha Research
“The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2023”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
Research and Markets: “Inflation, Redistribution, Emerging Markets and why Investors Should Adopt a More Absolute Return-Oriented Mindset”, JP Smith, IRF
“The UK Back From the Brink; Regeneration Through Deleveraging”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
“Joining up the dots in China”, Anne Stevenson-Yang, J Capital Research
“Turkey: An Emerging Market Opportunity?”, Zekeriya Ozturk, iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory
Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, JP Smith, IRF
“The Revival of Inflation: What Next?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
Research and Markets: “What is the Next Market Regime?”, JP Smith, IRF
“US Politics: The Prospects for 2023 & 2024”, James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners
“China: CBB Proprietary Data Tells A Different Story”, Leland Miller, China Beige Book
“UK Politics: Continuity or Discontinuity?”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
“The Causes and Consequences of the Fed’s Misjudgement”, John Ryding, RDQ Economics
“Charting Future Trends in the World Stock Markets”, Lane Dusserre, SMI
“The UK Cost of Credit Crisis”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
“World War 3”, David Murrin, Global Forecaster
“The US Economic Outlook: A Profitable Non-Consensus View”, Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics
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