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雪球·财经有深度

雪球·财经有深度

Business:Investing

2390.再谈美团

2390.再谈美团

2024-01-21
Download Right click and do "save link as"

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台,聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好我是主播匪石,今天分享的内容叫再谈美团,来自我家后花园。

最近很多人认为在抖音和美团的竞争过程中,美团没有机会。而在我看来,美团和抖音的竞争,趋势已经明朗,能看到结局了。终局就是,抖音的加入把到店的大盘做大了,在新增的大盘里,美团获取了大部分的增量市场,抖音不会超过40%;最多2年抖音由进攻转变为战略防守,市场格局稳定下来。美团最大的挑战,在于优选新业务。优选业务的胜负手取决于三个核心能力:用户获取能力、商品能力、履约能力。目前优选和多多买菜的竞争,第一个劣势很明显,后两个目前还没明显优势。接下来的竞争难度很大。

在和抖音的竞争中,美团能胜,我认为主要原因如下:

首先是虽然本地生活业务看起来没啥门槛,谁都能搞,但实际上先发优势非常强。先发优势体现在两个方面:第一是本地生活业务没啥全国范围的规模优势,规模优势只体现在单个城市范围内。虽然看起来只是两个公司之间的竞争,实际上相对独立的竞争战场在全国有2000多个,只有打赢其中一半以上的战场,才能赢得战争。那么这场战争要如何发起,至关重要。如果后来者只是简单的从几个城市切入,先在几个城市打赢再慢慢扩大城市范围,这条路一定走不通。原因是市场领导者可以牺牲掉几十个城市的盈利和调集几十个城市的资源,在一个城市把你往死你打,结果毫无悬念。之前滴滴在温州搞外卖,被美团就是这么搞死的;同样,美团做打车也是被滴滴这么搞死的。所以,后来者想要挑战,唯一的路径就是同时在全国上百甚至上千个城市推广业务,才有可能有资格一战。

第二个方面是货架+低价,在本地生活业务,目前是货架占绝对主流,未来低价的份额会大大增加。货架指的是,用户有需求会第一个想到这个平台,去找相应的服务,比如,饿了第一时间打开美团外卖。低价是指,我因为无意中得到一张低价券就去对应的饭店吃饭。很多用户已经养成了出门之前查查点评,到店支付看看有没有美团券,这种心智后来者很难有机会挑战,原因是货架心智需要长时间的大量数据沉淀。

其次再说说用户侧的情况。直觉上来看,美团用户量比抖音少不少。但聚焦到店目标用户群。美团在县城以上的用户量和抖音差距不大,原因是美团外卖和美团优选两个业务的用户渗透。全国2000多个县,美团外卖早就完成渗透了,特别是对年轻用户的渗透。在县城及以上城市,美团和抖音用户量没有太大的差距,只不过使用频次抖音高而已。用户量上的差异主要在农村和低线城市年龄偏长的用户,这两类用户本身也不是到店的主力用户,我认为不是这场竞争的胜负手。从美团财报中年度交易用户也能看出来,7亿多交易用户,去掉农村3-4亿人口,低线城市年龄大的用户和小孩4-5亿,剩下的人基本上都在美团进行过交易。

最后是从23年下半年开始,各种渠道来源的信息都表示,美团到店业务的GMV和抖音到店业务GMV的比值一直在拉大,抖音业务增速比美团慢。这些渠道包括,商户侧的数据反馈,美团和抖音的内部数据反馈。数据只是结果,造成这种结果的原因是前面两个原因。从这个趋势来看,抖音是没什么机会的。通过亏损获取市场份额是不持续的;通过亏损获取市场份额的速度比竞争对手还要慢,同时竞争对手是赚钱的,就更不可持续了。

总结下,抖音和美团的竞争已经没啥悬念,真正影响美团未来发展的是优选业务。



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