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雪球·财经有深度

雪球·财经有深度

Business:Investing

2794.白酒的生意模式正在发生变化

2794.白酒的生意模式正在发生变化

2025-03-05
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欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度,雪球,国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台,聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫白酒的生意模式正在发生变化,来自简大1735。

从改革开放到现在约莫40年,中国的经济飞速发展,从一开始产能短缺,你只要造出商品就能赚钱的“产品为王”时代,到后来不光要造出产品,还要能抢占渠道,抢占货架的“渠道为王”时代。

再到如今物资极大丰富、信息高度透明、互联网极度发达,我们无从准确定义现在属于一个什么样的时代,但我们很清楚的知道,在当前社会,没有好产品、好渠道是肯定不行的,光有好产品、好渠道肯定是不够的。

分众的江南春讲现下处于“心智为王”的时代,说的有一定道理,比如小米汽车的爆火,可能恰恰是因为小米通过长期的努力塑造出来了高性价比的品牌形象,得到了消费者的认可,长期占据了消费者的心智。

前年,在繁华这部电视剧里,我记得有一款三羊牌毛衣,范总辛辛苦苦的去上海找人来经销,宝总有意,中间双方还针对价格磨来磨去,在宝总接手之前,三羊的品牌是很弱的,愿意经销的人也不是很多,等宝总一炮打响以后,三羊开始爆火,想要经销的人一下子多了起来。

可见,在当时那个年代,很多产品和经销商之间的关系是对等的,甚至说很多产品的生产厂家是弱于有较强渠道能力的经销商的,在品牌发展初期,品牌力还不够响的时候,这些品牌厂需要去求这些有实力的经销商经销自己的产品,求着他们打款进货,求着他们把自己的产品铺到当地的优质商超、商场里。

举个例子,2000年初的时候,洋河刚开始推出海之蓝的时候,在苏南城市的很多经销商一次打款100万,那会这些大商都是开着货车带着钱直接去厂里拖货,那会面对打款100万的客户,去厂里提货的时候,当时的董事长都站在厂门口迎接的,可见当时经销商和酒企之间的关系和今天完全是两样的,品牌初期或者说渠道为王的时代,你只要有钱且掌握了一定的渠道,明面上你是酒企的经销商,实际上,你就是他们最尊贵的客户,酒企是把你当上帝一样对待的。

所以别看现在很多酒企品牌很响很高大上,经销商显得就跟酒企一群小弟一样,早些年不是这个画面,包括茅台,早年也都是一路求渠道求过来的,茅台当年的地推团队非常强大,酒店盘中盘的时候,求着全国各地的高档餐厅、酒店给自己上陈列,设展示柜,求着地方上的糖烟酒公司经销自己的产品,给自己打款,当时很多糖烟酒公司还是公家单位。大部分的名酒品牌都经历过这样一个过程,品牌也是在这样的过程里一步步壮大起来的。

品牌壮大以后,想经销的人多了,酒企和经销商之间的地位才慢慢开始发生变化,品牌提供推力,经销商团队提供拉力,强势品牌掌握了主动权,这样一来,白酒的生意模式才算是真正走出来,才能称得上是优秀的生意模式。

但为什么我又要讲白酒的生意模式正在发生变化呢?

上面的内容我们大概聊了白酒如今优秀的生意模式是怎么一步步走出来的,名酒的品牌是怎么一步步做出来的,但如今进入互联网时代以后,虽说渠道扁平化加剧,很多酒企还是沿袭着原来的老路去走的,业绩上也是一步步去压榨经销商。

很多经销商,也因为渠道的作用力在减弱,导致其话语权、影响力在减弱。不像早年,在当地有几百家超市渠道的经销商在酒企眼里就是个宝。因为他几百家超市背后可能是几十万客户,这部分客户酒企是绕不开他的。现在不一样了,消费者除了去超市购物还会去网上购物,网上还能送货上门,传统超市的动销又变得极其慢。

这么一搞很多经销商眼看着被酒企压榨也是敢怒不敢言。因为他们能提供的价值日益减少,从双方互惠互利的平等关系,演变成现在跟着酒企混饭吃的关系,只能忍气吞声了。

很多人一看,这么一搞酒企不是变得强大了吗?何来生意模式变差一说呢?

主要是因为前两年经销商跟着酒企忍气吞声还能混饭吃,酒企通过压榨这群经销商还能实现业绩增长。但是近两年,很多经销商已经是吃不上饭了。渠道扁平化持续加剧,多级分销渠道里的每一级都越来越没钱赚。没钱赚,势必会不断挤压在这个行业里吃饭的人,最终就是渠道上的从业人员的饭碗被电商抢了,被互联网抢了。再或者说即使没被抢,也因为互联网的捣乱搞得饭碗被砸了。而酒企并没能找到新的路径来壮大品牌、提升销量,经销体系这样一个优质的蓄水池也慢慢那干涸了。你说这不是生意模式在变差那是啥?

我在之前的很多文章里讲过经销商的作用,以及酒企和经销商之间的内部运作,也很多次的强调过酒企其实现下还是离不开经销商的,但是经销体系又是确定的在走向没落,渠道扁平化还会日益加剧,这个是时代大势,不会以任何人或企业的意志而转移的。

也因此,如果一众酒企不能在这个时代找到自己新的发展路径,生意模式只会越变越差。这是在投资白酒的过程中,需要认识到和注意到的一个重点。

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