On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.
Links:
The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/
Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/
0:00 Intro / Background
2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making
3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong
4:30 The role of confidence
6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework
10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level
13:00 Executives discussing AI
14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant
15:35 The K-shaped recovery
17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower
18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences
20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today
24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election
28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?
31:00 Millennials’ sentiment
33:00 Real life moves us around
35:00 Music and the mood
38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon
39:30 Peak confidence?
40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven
41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”
44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme
47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”
50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”
53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession
55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator
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#175 Chris Whalen: 'We're Hiding A Lot' — Why Commercial Could Be The Next Source Of The Financial Crisis In This Country
#174 James Lavish On The Debt Spiral: They’re Going To Print So Much Money It’s Going To Shock You
#173 Dave Collum On Why We’re Headed For A 40-Year Bear Market
#172 John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, Causes Of Inflation, And The Need To Stop Throwing Money Down Trillion-dollar Rat Holes
#171 Dave Friedberg, CEO Of Ohala And Co-Host of The All-In Podcast, On The New Breakthrough Can Boost Crop Yields By 50-100% And Could Change Farming Forever
#170 Bob Elliott: The Biggest Risk For Equity Investors Is The Economy Remains Too Strong
#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence
#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is
#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble
#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors
#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%
#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage
#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American
#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does
#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar
#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation
#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle
#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets
#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy
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