On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.
Links:
The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/
Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/
0:00 Intro / Background
2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making
3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong
4:30 The role of confidence
6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework
10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level
13:00 Executives discussing AI
14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant
15:35 The K-shaped recovery
17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower
18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences
20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today
24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election
28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?
31:00 Millennials’ sentiment
33:00 Real life moves us around
35:00 Music and the mood
38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon
39:30 Peak confidence?
40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven
41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”
44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme
47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”
50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”
53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession
55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator
#097 Peter Borish: My Concern Is More Than A Recession
#096 Michael Howell: It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous
#095 Carol Roth: You Will Own Nothing
#094 Todd Gordon: Why We're Not Headed Toward Recession
#093 Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Here — How Will This Crisis End
#092 Milton Berg On Why There’s Strong Evidence The Market Won’t Do Well
#090 Jens Nordvig On How AI Is Changing Investing Forever
#089 Jim Bianco On Why Inflation Will Be Problematic And There Won't Be A Fed Pivot
#088 Dr. Ed Altman: We’ve Reached An Inflection Point In The Credit Cycle
#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months
#086 The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry On The Economy: 'I'm Fearful'
#085 Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
#084 Michael Green On Passive Investing Creating Distortions In The Market Right Now
#083 Nassim Taleb And Scott Patterson On Black Swans And Chaos Kings
#082 David Hunter On Melt Up In Stocks, Global Bust, And Gold $20,000 Forecast
#081 Professor Steve Hanke Sees Decline In Inflation, Recession On The Way
#080 Nick Glinsman: Investors Beware China
#079 Brent Johnson, Creator Of ‘The Dollar Milkshake Theory,’ Explains Why We’re Heading Toward A Sovereign Debt And Currency Crisis
#078 Guy Spier On How Lunch With Warren Buffett Changed His Life
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