On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.
Links:
The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/
Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/
0:00 Intro / Background
2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making
3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong
4:30 The role of confidence
6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework
10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level
13:00 Executives discussing AI
14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant
15:35 The K-shaped recovery
17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower
18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences
20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today
24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election
28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?
31:00 Millennials’ sentiment
33:00 Real life moves us around
35:00 Music and the mood
38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon
39:30 Peak confidence?
40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven
41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”
44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme
47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”
50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”
53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession
55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator
#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession
#035 Envestnet Co-CIO Dana D’Auria On Personalizing Portfolios
#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG
#033 Jan Van Eck On Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds
#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire
#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put
#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise'
#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest
#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’
#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable
#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001
#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern
#024 "Convexity Maven" Harley Bassman On Repricing For Reality
#023 Nick Maggiulli On Why You Should ‘Just Keep Buying’
#022 Brent Johnson On The "Dollar Milkshake" Theory And Why A Currency Crisis Is Ahead
#021 Jim Rickards: We're Going To Wake Up This Winter With A Severe Recession
#020 Josh Brown: You Weren’t Supposed To See That
#019 Marty Chavez On How Software Ate Finance
#018 David Friedberg On Reimagining The World Through Decentralization
#017 Jim Rogers: The Next Bear Market Will Be 'The Worst In My Lifetime'
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