Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.
0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift to stagflation
50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024
#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist
#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money
#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook
#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker
#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing
#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession
#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table
#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000
#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?
#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s
#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up
#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds
#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet)
#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming
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