Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.
0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift to stagflation
50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
#057 Milton Berg: How To Spot ‘Turning Points’ In The Markets
#056 Sam Burns On Being More Bullish On Equities In At Least A Year
#055 Jim Grant: Disinflation For The Short Run, Inflation For The Long Run
#054 Ted Oakley: A Long Way To A Normalized Investing Environment Post ‘Super Bubble’
#053 Michael Howell On How Liquidity Drives Markets And Where We're Likely Headed
#052 James Lavish: We're Walking A Very Thin Tightrope Over A Cliff
#051 Peter Boockvar On The 'Death By A Thousand Cuts' Economy
#050 Cullen Roche On Macro Outlook And Housing Risks
#049 You're Going To Be Working Until You're 85 Or 90 | Ric Edelman
#048 Carol Roth On How The Government And The Fed Created The Largest Wealth Transfer In History
#047 Joe Fahmy On Why Biotech Will Outperform The Broader Market In 2023
#046 Whitney Tilson On Avoiding The 5 Calamities That Can Ruin You
#045 Caleb Franzen: The Fed Is Being Challenged By Ongoing Labor Market Dynamics
#044 Standing Up to the Woke Mob and Walking Away From $1 Million: Jennifer Sey's Story
#043 Jon Hilsenrath On Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen And Navigating An Era Of Upheaval
#042 MEGATHREATS: 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini's Scariest Prediction
#041 Jim Bianco: Recession Has Become The New Bull Story On Wall Street
#040 Tom Thornton On Why We Might See True Capitulation In The Markets In 2023
#039 Stephanie Link On The Fed, Markets, And Working With Jim Cramer
#038 ‘Art & Equity’ With Blythe Masters, Brett Redfearn, Elizabeth Von Habsburg, and Carlos Domingo
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