Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.
0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift to stagflation
50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio
#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin
#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession
#114 Bob Elliott On Why It's Time For A 10% Gold Allocation
#113 Jim Rickards On What The Israel-Hamas War Could Mean For The Global Economy
#112 Darius Dale: Why We Could Have A Worse Recession Than Investors Anticipate
#111 David Hay: The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down, With Each Passing Day
#110 Marc Chandler: The Dollar's Rally Is, If It's Not Over Yet, It's Nearly Over
#109 Danielle DiMartino Booth: 'It’s Clear That The U.S. Economy Is In A Recession If It Wasn't For Everything That Uncle Sam Is Either Spending Or Fudging'
#108 Chris Whalen On The ‘Silent Crisis’ — The Looming Commercial-Led Recession
#107 Claudia Sahm: The Economy Is At An Inflection Point
#106 Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman: The U.S. Treasury Market Is The ‘Ultimate Wrecking Ball’
#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon
#104 Christopher Zook On Stagflation, Energy, And A 'Generational Opportunity' In Commercial Real Estate
#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning
#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market
#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes
#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession
#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment
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