Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.
In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.
Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet.
Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.
Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.
He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.
Links:
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan
0:55 Macro view
1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks
2:45 Recession is coming
4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits
5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks
8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June
10:57 McClellan Oscillator
13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns
15:20 Taxes could be a problem
20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long
25:30 Recession call
27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge
29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy
35:05 Gold
37:00 Bitcoin
38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story
44:00 Parting thoughts
#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History
#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom
#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To
#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession
#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot
#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed
#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets
#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote
#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests
#143: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Jobs Market, The Economy, And Why The Recession Already Started
#142 Dr. Burton Malkiel On 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' The Best Way To Invest, And What You're Getting Wrong About 'Efficient Markets'
#141 Marc Faber On Interest Rates, Inflation, And 'QE Infinity'
#140 DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Sherman On Fed Policy, The Economy, And Why Rate Cuts Likely Won't Happen Until June Or Later
#139 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini On The 10 Megathreats That Could Destroy Our Economy
#138 Peter Mallouk, CEO of $245B Creative Planning: 'It’s Hard To Be Anything But Optimistic Over The Long Run'
#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024
#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The Commercial Edge: Unleash the Power of People
The emPOWERed Half Hour
U.S Property Podcast
Aligned Money Show
Dubai Property Podcast
The Ramsey Show
The Clark Howard Podcast