Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.
In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.
Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet.
Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.
Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.
He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.
Links:
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan
0:55 Macro view
1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks
2:45 Recession is coming
4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits
5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks
8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June
10:57 McClellan Oscillator
13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns
15:20 Taxes could be a problem
20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long
25:30 Recession call
27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge
29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy
35:05 Gold
37:00 Bitcoin
38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story
44:00 Parting thoughts
#072 Christopher Zook: A Recession Is Coming And It’s Going to Be Deeper and Longer Than People Think
#071 ‘The Patriot Economy’: Omeed Malik On The Rise Of A New Economy In Response To ESG
#070 Axel Merk On Why Banks Are 'The Big Elephant In The Room'
#069 Joseph Wang On Why A Decade Of Persistently High Inflation Is Ahead
#068 Ray Dalio On Where We Are In The Changing World Order
#067 Jeff Snider: Markets Are 'Screaming Bloody Murder' And Are Hedged For A 2008-Style Scenario
#066 Bethany McLean On The Rise Of Legal Fraud
#065 Mark Yusko: We Are On The Precipice Of The Global Financial Crisis II
#064 DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda On Macro, Housing, And The Opportunities In MBS
#063 Jonathan Boyar On Finding Value During Uncertain Times
#062 Jim Rickards: ‘Are You Kidding Me? This Is The Biggest Bailout In History’
#061 Willem Middelkoop On SVB Collapse, The Big Reset, And The Financial Endgame
#060 Tom Lee On Why Stocks Are Already In A New Uptrend
#059 Larry McDonald: We've Permanently Come Into A New Higher Interest Rate Regime And Trillions Are Currently Misallocated
#058 'Lunatic Farmer' Joel Salatin On The Only System That Can Ultimately Feed The World
#057 Milton Berg: How To Spot ‘Turning Points’ In The Markets
#056 Sam Burns On Being More Bullish On Equities In At Least A Year
#055 Jim Grant: Disinflation For The Short Run, Inflation For The Long Run
#054 Ted Oakley: A Long Way To A Normalized Investing Environment Post ‘Super Bubble’
#053 Michael Howell On How Liquidity Drives Markets And Where We're Likely Headed
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