Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.
In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.
Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet.
Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.
Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.
He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.
Links:
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan
0:55 Macro view
1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks
2:45 Recession is coming
4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits
5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks
8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June
10:57 McClellan Oscillator
13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns
15:20 Taxes could be a problem
20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long
25:30 Recession call
27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge
29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy
35:05 Gold
37:00 Bitcoin
38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story
44:00 Parting thoughts
#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire
#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put
#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise'
#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest
#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’
#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable
#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001
#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern
#024 "Convexity Maven" Harley Bassman On Repricing For Reality
#023 Nick Maggiulli On Why You Should ‘Just Keep Buying’
#022 Brent Johnson On The "Dollar Milkshake" Theory And Why A Currency Crisis Is Ahead
#021 Jim Rickards: We're Going To Wake Up This Winter With A Severe Recession
#020 Josh Brown: You Weren’t Supposed To See That
#019 Marty Chavez On How Software Ate Finance
#018 David Friedberg On Reimagining The World Through Decentralization
#017 Jim Rogers: The Next Bear Market Will Be 'The Worst In My Lifetime'
#016 Marc Benioff On The New Era For Business
#015 Activist Short-Seller Dan David On 'The China Hustle' And Uncovering Frauds
#014 Nik Bhatia On The Coexistence Of The Dollar And Bitcoin
#013 Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt On The Narratives Everywhere
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