David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Carl Weinberg, the Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics to discuss ‘Recovery from the Covid Crisis – Sizzle or Fizzle.’ High Frequency Economics has been a trusted source of economic intelligence for the financial community for over 30 years.----more----
The Fed is facing a crisis and there is no good policy option to be had. It is currently looking at extraordinarily high unemployment which it sees as a risk to social stability, financial stability and economic stability – an unaffordable burden on the economy. There is a risk of inflation to be weighed against the risk of high unemployment. Carl is not convinced there is an inflation risk and gives his reasons why. He states that inflation is the simultaneous and proportionate increase of all prices and all wages for a sustained period of time. He looks back at the last global financial crisis in 2008/09 and then recalls that going into the current economic downturn the economy was already entering an industrial recession. The question he asks of those expecting a sizzling rebound is: ‘Why should the economy not go back to what it was doing before the Covid crisis.’ Carl discusses the impact of scarring from the pandemic and closes with his thoughts on the strongest risk to the strength of the global economic rebound. This may take investors by surprise!
Research and Markets: “Buckle up for an Increase in Volatility”, JP Smith, IRF
“The Fed’s Dim Chances of Getting Inflation Under Control”, David Ranson, HCWE & Co.
Research and Markets: “China and Energy Prices will be the key Drivers of Financial Markets in 2023”, JP Smith, IRF
“The Financial Markets in 2022 and 2023”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“Japan in 2023: A Year of Major Transformation and Opportunities”, Ryoji Musha, Musha Research
“The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2023”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
Research and Markets: “Inflation, Redistribution, Emerging Markets and why Investors Should Adopt a More Absolute Return-Oriented Mindset”, JP Smith, IRF
“The UK Back From the Brink; Regeneration Through Deleveraging”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
“Joining up the dots in China”, Anne Stevenson-Yang, J Capital Research
“Turkey: An Emerging Market Opportunity?”, Zekeriya Ozturk, iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory
Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, JP Smith, IRF
“The Revival of Inflation: What Next?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
Research and Markets: “What is the Next Market Regime?”, JP Smith, IRF
“US Politics: The Prospects for 2023 & 2024”, James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners
“China: CBB Proprietary Data Tells A Different Story”, Leland Miller, China Beige Book
“UK Politics: Continuity or Discontinuity?”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
“The Causes and Consequences of the Fed’s Misjudgement”, John Ryding, RDQ Economics
“Charting Future Trends in the World Stock Markets”, Lane Dusserre, SMI
“The UK Cost of Credit Crisis”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
“World War 3”, David Murrin, Global Forecaster
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