A solo episode from Paul. These are the notes I used... the audio is balanced differently.
Insight by Bernard Lonergan and 20/20 hindsight.
What else (besides the coronavirus and similar epidemics) are we not preparing for? Can we? We can't know all the unknowns, and it is somewhere between difficult and impossible to quantify the risks even for the things we can anticipate. Yet quantification is reasonable and laudable because individual lives do matter... the 1,000,001st victim of a tragedy just as much as the first.
Problem areas:
Education and the bureaucratic / engineering mentality "we already know everything we need to make a decision" and "let's do something to make it look like we're doing something."
Finance and the herd mentality. Bullwhip chains of overreaction in the face of unknown risks. A reacts semi-rationally to the situation, B overreacts to A's reaction, C overreacts to B, etc. Federal forgiveness, however good in itself, has the side effect of blinding banks to their own internal information channels regarding default rates, etc. Banks are looking around at employment figures and other data, guessing what to do, overreacting, looking at their peers and emulating the most extreme.
There are a lot of really tired people working in logistics right now.
Job seekers giving up due to pessimism and the difficulty in thinking statistically. It's hard for me to go ahead and spend the effort to do something when I know its individual success rate is well under 50%. Now things are worse. All that means is that more repetitions will be needed to achieve success. However, it is easy to fall into the fallacy of "it was hard before but worth trying; now it's harder and therefore not worth trying," making an all-or-nothing qualitative proposition out of something that in its nature is gradational and quantitative.
Hope really is a virtue.
Audio editing by Morgan Burkart.
Episode 111 - A Catholic Teacher – Dear Old Golden Rule Days
Episode 110 - To Solve Big Problems: Let’s Get Small!
Episode 108 - Masks, Science, Novelty, and Conservatism
Episode 107 - Dick Garrett on Kids, Schools, and Teachers
Episode 106 - Beyond Heisenberg, the Principal Uncertainty
Episode 105 – Dick Garrett: The Kids Are Smart Enough
Episode 104 - Scraping Facts Online: If You Can’t Beat ’Em, Datum
Episode 103 - Richard Doerflinger on Covid-19, Commercial Confidence, and Imperfect Science
Episode 102 - Diverse Isolation Stories Could Bring Us Together
Episode 101 - Pandemics as a Science Problem; Skepticism in a Diseased World
Episode 100 - Hemispheres Playing God
Episode 099 - Secular Franciscans on World’s New Views, Old Values
Episode 098 - Uncertainty Principles, Principled Uncertainty, and Science in Times of Catastrophe
Episode 097 - Social Distancing and Loners in the American Psyche
Episode 096 - How a Strong Nest Can Lift Society Higher, with Darcia Narvaez
Episode 095 - Bridges Built by Song, with musician Micki Miller
Episode 094 - Maureen Condic (rerun, full interview)
Episode 093 - The Great Divorce between Philosophy and Science
Episode 092 - Scientists and Religion with Dr. Tom Ryba
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