A solo episode from Paul. These are the notes I used... the audio is balanced differently.
Insight by Bernard Lonergan and 20/20 hindsight.
What else (besides the coronavirus and similar epidemics) are we not preparing for? Can we? We can't know all the unknowns, and it is somewhere between difficult and impossible to quantify the risks even for the things we can anticipate. Yet quantification is reasonable and laudable because individual lives do matter... the 1,000,001st victim of a tragedy just as much as the first.
Problem areas:
Education and the bureaucratic / engineering mentality "we already know everything we need to make a decision" and "let's do something to make it look like we're doing something."
Finance and the herd mentality. Bullwhip chains of overreaction in the face of unknown risks. A reacts semi-rationally to the situation, B overreacts to A's reaction, C overreacts to B, etc. Federal forgiveness, however good in itself, has the side effect of blinding banks to their own internal information channels regarding default rates, etc. Banks are looking around at employment figures and other data, guessing what to do, overreacting, looking at their peers and emulating the most extreme.
There are a lot of really tired people working in logistics right now.
Job seekers giving up due to pessimism and the difficulty in thinking statistically. It's hard for me to go ahead and spend the effort to do something when I know its individual success rate is well under 50%. Now things are worse. All that means is that more repetitions will be needed to achieve success. However, it is easy to fall into the fallacy of "it was hard before but worth trying; now it's harder and therefore not worth trying," making an all-or-nothing qualitative proposition out of something that in its nature is gradational and quantitative.
Hope really is a virtue.
Audio editing by Morgan Burkart.
Episode 019 - Conclusion: SCS Conference
Episode 018 - SCS Conference: Peter Koellner, Andrew Sicree
Episode 017 - Aaron Schurger at SCSC: Fifty Years Without Free Will
Episode 016 - Valerio Scarani at the Society of Catholic Scientists Conference 2018
Episode 015 - Stephen Barr at the Society of Catholic Scientists Conference 2018
Episode 014 - Ed Feser's Keynote at SCS
Episode 013 - Human Mind and Physicalism (Society of Catholic Scientists Conference 2018)
Episode 012 - Society of Catholic Scientists
Episode 011 - Intellectual Citizenship (part 2)
Episode 010 - Intellectual Citizenship (part 1)
Episode 009 – Ways to Think of Science and Religion as Parallel
Episode 008 - Paradigm Shifts in Science and Religion
Bonus Episode - Science, Scholarship, and University Teaching
Episode 007 - Falsifiability and Scientific Revolutions
Episode 006 - Evolution in Christianity and Geology
Episode 005 - Evolution in Biology, Physics, and Faith
Episode 004 - Complexity, Cosmic Evolution, Change and Certainty
Episode 003 - Metaphysics and the Divorce between Science and Philosophy
Episode 002 - Is Your Metaphysics Up for This?
Episode 001 - Why You Shouldn't Stay in (but Should Learn from) the Second Millennium
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