A solo episode from Paul. These are the notes I used... the audio is balanced differently.
Insight by Bernard Lonergan and 20/20 hindsight.
What else (besides the coronavirus and similar epidemics) are we not preparing for? Can we? We can't know all the unknowns, and it is somewhere between difficult and impossible to quantify the risks even for the things we can anticipate. Yet quantification is reasonable and laudable because individual lives do matter... the 1,000,001st victim of a tragedy just as much as the first.
Problem areas:
Education and the bureaucratic / engineering mentality "we already know everything we need to make a decision" and "let's do something to make it look like we're doing something."
Finance and the herd mentality. Bullwhip chains of overreaction in the face of unknown risks. A reacts semi-rationally to the situation, B overreacts to A's reaction, C overreacts to B, etc. Federal forgiveness, however good in itself, has the side effect of blinding banks to their own internal information channels regarding default rates, etc. Banks are looking around at employment figures and other data, guessing what to do, overreacting, looking at their peers and emulating the most extreme.
There are a lot of really tired people working in logistics right now.
Job seekers giving up due to pessimism and the difficulty in thinking statistically. It's hard for me to go ahead and spend the effort to do something when I know its individual success rate is well under 50%. Now things are worse. All that means is that more repetitions will be needed to achieve success. However, it is easy to fall into the fallacy of "it was hard before but worth trying; now it's harder and therefore not worth trying," making an all-or-nothing qualitative proposition out of something that in its nature is gradational and quantitative.
Hope really is a virtue.
Audio editing by Morgan Burkart.
Episode 053 - Chris Baglow & Jay Martin: beyond faith & science... faith & everything
Bonus Episode - Patricia Bellm: Compartmentalization vs. integration
Episode 052 - Chris Baglow & Jay Martin: the mission to (re)integrate science & faith
Bonus Episode - Patricia Bellm: Bible interpretation
Episode 051 - Patricia Bellm: Responsibility and control in science and engineering
Bonus Episode - Patricia Bellm: Miguel from Mexico
Episode 050 - Craig Lent: decoherence, entropy, and faith
Episode 049 - Craig Lent: physics and humanity
Bonus Episode - Patricia Bellm: Marriage & canon law
Episode 048 - Terry Ehrman: God vs. Godzilla, carmen Dei vs. strepitus naturae
Episode 047 - Terry Ehrman: theology and ecology, respecting the grammar of natures
Episode 046 - Daniel Hinshaw and the frontier between medicine and faith
Episode 045 - Daniel Hinshaw and the human microcosmos
Episode 044 - The Brain and The Pain of Being Human
Episode 043 - Introduction to the Brain
Episode 042 - TSSM in 2019, part 2
Episode 041 - TSSM in 2019
Episode 040 - Kirby Runyon: Christian planetary scientist
Episode 039 - Star of Bethlehem
Episode 038 - Jill Pasteris: Uncertainty and Faith
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