A solo episode from Paul. These are the notes I used... the audio is balanced differently.
Insight by Bernard Lonergan and 20/20 hindsight.
What else (besides the coronavirus and similar epidemics) are we not preparing for? Can we? We can't know all the unknowns, and it is somewhere between difficult and impossible to quantify the risks even for the things we can anticipate. Yet quantification is reasonable and laudable because individual lives do matter... the 1,000,001st victim of a tragedy just as much as the first.
Problem areas:
Education and the bureaucratic / engineering mentality "we already know everything we need to make a decision" and "let's do something to make it look like we're doing something."
Finance and the herd mentality. Bullwhip chains of overreaction in the face of unknown risks. A reacts semi-rationally to the situation, B overreacts to A's reaction, C overreacts to B, etc. Federal forgiveness, however good in itself, has the side effect of blinding banks to their own internal information channels regarding default rates, etc. Banks are looking around at employment figures and other data, guessing what to do, overreacting, looking at their peers and emulating the most extreme.
There are a lot of really tired people working in logistics right now.
Job seekers giving up due to pessimism and the difficulty in thinking statistically. It's hard for me to go ahead and spend the effort to do something when I know its individual success rate is well under 50%. Now things are worse. All that means is that more repetitions will be needed to achieve success. However, it is easy to fall into the fallacy of "it was hard before but worth trying; now it's harder and therefore not worth trying," making an all-or-nothing qualitative proposition out of something that in its nature is gradational and quantitative.
Hope really is a virtue.
Audio editing by Morgan Burkart.
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Episode 071 - Sonsoles de Lacalle
Episode 070 - Nicanor Austriaco
Episode 069 - Fr. Lawrence Machia OSB and Daniel vanden Berk, part II
Episode 068 - Fr. Lawrence Machia OSB and Daniel vanden Berk, part I
Episode 067 - Maureen Condic, part III
Episode 066 - Maureen Condic, part II
Episode 065 - Maureen Condic, part I
Episode 064 - SCS 2019 Panel, part II
Episode 063 - SCS 2019 Panel, part I
Bonus - Quick Hits - SCS 2019
Episode 062 - Jonathan Lunine SCS Conference Preview
Episode 061 – Preview of SCS Conference 2019
Episode 060 – What Does It Mean To Be Human? (SCS 2019)
Episode 059 – Origin Story: Society of Catholic Scientists
Episode 058 – Let’s Act Like We’re on the Winning Side (Since We Are)
Episode 057 – The Best Thing Out There
Episode 056 - Darcia Narvaez on the (other) tragedy of the commons and moral/economic disengagement in civilized society
Episode 055 - Darcia Narvaez on socialization and isolation
Episode 054 - TSSM Season 2
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