Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy
#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks
#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'
#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth
#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call
#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History
#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom
#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To
#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession
#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot
#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed
#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets
#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote
#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests
#143: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Jobs Market, The Economy, And Why The Recession Already Started
#142 Dr. Burton Malkiel On 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' The Best Way To Invest, And What You're Getting Wrong About 'Efficient Markets'
#141 Marc Faber On Interest Rates, Inflation, And 'QE Infinity'
#140 DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Sherman On Fed Policy, The Economy, And Why Rate Cuts Likely Won't Happen Until June Or Later
#139 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini On The 10 Megathreats That Could Destroy Our Economy
#138 Peter Mallouk, CEO of $245B Creative Planning: 'It’s Hard To Be Anything But Optimistic Over The Long Run'
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