Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024
#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist
#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money
#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook
#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker
#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession
#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table
#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000
#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?
#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s
#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up
#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds
#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet)
#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming
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