Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
#037 Axel Merk On The Fed's Sledgehammer Approach To The Economy
#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession
#035 Envestnet Co-CIO Dana D’Auria On Personalizing Portfolios
#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG
#033 Jan Van Eck On Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds
#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire
#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put
#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise'
#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest
#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’
#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable
#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001
#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern
#024 "Convexity Maven" Harley Bassman On Repricing For Reality
#023 Nick Maggiulli On Why You Should ‘Just Keep Buying’
#022 Brent Johnson On The "Dollar Milkshake" Theory And Why A Currency Crisis Is Ahead
#021 Jim Rickards: We're Going To Wake Up This Winter With A Severe Recession
#020 Josh Brown: You Weren’t Supposed To See That
#019 Marty Chavez On How Software Ate Finance
#018 David Friedberg On Reimagining The World Through Decentralization
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